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Secondary Suite Study Consultant Survey Summary:  Were you misinformed?

Oak Bay Watch has been concerned that the consultant engaged to conduct the Secondary Suites Survey has avoided drawing certain conclusions from the responses or has drawn conclusions unsupported by the raw data. But we have been fortunate in being able to obtain a professional third-party analysis undertaken by Dr. Michael, Wilmut,retired professor of mathematics and statistics.
“A Critique of Urban Systems’ Secondary Suites Community Survey Summary”

The following is Oak Bay Watch’s summary of Dr. Wilmut’s observations and conclusions. ( Note: Dr. Wilmut is not a member of Oak Bay Watch. Oak Bay Watch expects to publish the full analysis at a later date.)
 
Dr Wilmut found that:
 
  • The Survey Summary did not process all the responses,
 
  • Did not report responses in a consistent manner,
 
  • Used a poor display format, and
 
  • Did not fully extract the information in the data.
 

Observation: 
All the data was not processed.

Conclusion:  
Reprocessing is needed using all the data.
 
Observation:  Consistency - 6 questions allow for “unsure/prefer not to answer”.  4
                         questions do not.                
          

Conclusion:  The “Unsure/prefer not to answer” question should be omitted making
                            

Observation:  Neighbourhoods were asked “Generally speaking, which of the four    
                       scenarios listed do you prefer for permitting secondary suites?”
                       The various options are Scenario A, the least restrictive, to Scenario
                        the most restrictive, with gradation between for B and C. 



Picture
Conclusion:  A study of the table shows neighbourhood does not affect
                       scenario choice. The individual neighbourhoods’ scenario
                       preferences closely follow the total community scenario
                       preferences.
 
Observation: (Possibly the most important question but it wasn’t asked)
                       “Does experience (live-in suite, own suite, live on a
                        street with suites) affect scenario preference?”


Picture
Conclusion:      People who live in or own a suite prefer weak legalization rules.
                           Those who live on a street with suites, but do not own
                            or rent, prefer strong legalization rules. Not only is Scenario D
                            much preferred overall, but particularly so for those who live on
                            a street.

Observation:      Urban Systems states “the relatively large number of 
                            respondents who selected Scenario A understands
                            that if the regulations are too imposing, it will not
                            encourage compliance and legalization of existing
                            (and even new) secondary suites, and will not help
                            with housing affordability in Oak Bay.”

 Conclusion:      As the question does not ask WHY respondents replied
                            as they did, where is the evidence for this statement?
 
Observation:      The OCP directive was to explore how secondary suites could be
                             regulated in Oak Bay without mentioning policies and
                             regulations rather than if secondary suites should be permitted.
                             Urban Systems’ Secondary Suite Survey’s stated objective
                             “is intended to identify the policies and regulations necessary for      
                             considering secondary suites."However, this survey leaps beyond
                             that intent to say Secondary Suites are being considered.
 
Conclusion:        The Consultant who designed the Secondary Suites Survey
                             did not read or understand the OCP Survey or even his
                             own company’s stated objective. This is a serious breech
                             of, if not complete disregard for, community trust. This
                             breech would have been corrected if Council had more than
                             one day to examine the questionnaire (before publication).


Recommendation:   
                        
                                      Dr. Wilmut suggests that the breech could be corrected,
                            once the  policies and regulations are ready for approval,
                            by way of a Community Survey with one two-part question:
 
                                  A) I support suite legalization. The OCP key issues such as
                                       tree protection, parking traffic, noise and neighbourhood
                                       character have been addressed.


 
                                                                                                        OR

                                  B) I do not support suite legalization. The OCP key issues
                                       have not been addressed.


Dr. Wilmut’s Overall Conclusion:
                        
                               "My observations illustrate serious flaws and omissions
                                in Urban Systems’ Survey Summary. As a benchmark,
                                if a student taking a university statistics course
                                submitted such material, I assure the reader they would
                                get a failing grade.”
 
                            ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

“Residents aren’t opposed to changes that make things better; only those that make things worse”.
Oak Bay Watch


Oak Bay Watch is a volunteer community association and its members have a variety of professional backgrounds in both the public and private sector.

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