Newsletter April 30, 2022 - This is Most Disturbing ….
If you can’t trust your Business, Developer and Builder’s Associations, Alliances and Institutions whom can you trust?
The message from these organizations and the Investment Industry is and has been for some time now, that a shortage of housing supply is the cause of the unaffordable prices that are impacting so many Canadians.
The solution they promote, at every opportunity, is that more supply is the action required to address Canada’s serious housing crisis.
It is apparent that their lobbying the federal and our provincial governments has paid dividends as our senior governments have adopted the “ramping-up the supply” as the primary housing crisis solution. All federal parties response this election year have indicated they are committed to more housing supply in their election platforms (see appendix #1).
The BC provincial government has gone one step further and has set a timeline to enact legislation to force municipalities to build as much supply as possible, as quickly as possible, even if this means eliminating public input opposed to the development's invasive impacts on their community.
However, a Union of BC Municipalities (UBCM) Report and other verifiable data confirm there is and has been adequate housing supply to meet demand and, municipalities are keeping pace with their increased population.
The adequate housing supply information is certainly true on Vancouver Island and in Vancouver. This is even supported by the data provided by the above development organizations (Appendix #2 provides information that the housing supply is adequate).
The BC Housing Minister, David Eby, disagrees he says housing supply is inadequate. He thinks this is why so many Canadians can’t afford housing and some are homeless. The minister has indicated resident opposition and municipal zoning, apparently not government inaction, is to blame for the housing crises.
What the Minister has failed to understand is that Canada’s housing crisis and homeless problem was caused by inflated land and rental costs. And only recently has the Federal Government recognized speculation and investing in real estate has played a big part in driving up Canada’s housing costs to unprecedented and unacceptable levels.
How do companies like CBRE have such a major impact on housing cots? See Oak Bay Watch Perspective
It is difficult to understand why, given all the information that confirms there is adequate supply, that housing affordability and not supply is the issue. If the home prices remain high for the government’s new “ramped up’ housing supply (purchase or rental) they will still be out of reach for many Canadians, including for the homeless and many of the new arrivals.
Surely it should be patently obvious to the housing minister by now that more high-priced supply is not going to solve Canada’s or British Columbia’s housing crises.
Oak Bay Watch Perspective (inflationary land pricing information)
What does this mean for Oak Bay?
Oak Bay has very little land left for development and it has a fairly healthy mix of multi-dwellings and single-family neighbourhoods. A recent estimate and past estimates have indicated there are also 750 secondary suites.
The options to add density are: to subdivide existing lots, or allow more density in multi-dwelling and single-family areas. Although this will add more housing units it will not make housing less expensive in Oak Bay. In fact, there is evidence that shows housing prices will increase and rents will remain high.
Other communities have provided an ample supply of laneway houses, basement and garden suites, and subdivisions. However, this has not reduced housing or rental prices. As indicated previously, the cost of land is the obvious problem that, like the elephant in the room, is being ignored by governments.
Land is more expensive, not only because more people want to move to British Columbia, but because the senior governments have allowed land and housing prices to be both legally and illegally, investment driven.
Some legislative actions against housing speculation have been taken to curtail investment practices. However, land speculation and investment continue to be identified by the academic community as the significant housing price-inflation factor. Unfortunately, this has not been and is not part of our senior government’s conversation.
To get a sense of the degree of land speculation in BC visit CBRE Victoria - see link https://cbrevictoria.com/our-listings/for-sale. CBRE is an American firm that is the world’s leading and largest commercial real estate service and investment firm (based on 2021 revenue). The Company indicates that it has offices and entrepreneurial clients all over the world.
Click on: “looking for your next investment opportunity – click here” or “Properties for Sale” (Note: These are the land-sale listings of only one of the Real Estate Companies’ operating in Canada)
The CBRE website has 8 land-use properties offered for sale in the Greater Victoria Area for a combined list price of over 48 million dollars. And a 68 acre treed site in Langford is advertised as, “a landmark investment opportunity. In a residential market that has high demand and a limited supply.”
Note this is only one of the real estate land speculation companies operating in Canada, It’s no wonder that “63% of Canadian non-owners have ‘given up’ on ever buying a home” as reported in the 2022-04-22 World News. Therefore, the question is whose “housing needs” were provided for in Victoria’s new 2021 record number of housing starts?
There seems to be no holding back for the Development and Investment Industries when it comes to their urban sprawl, natural asset destruction and the impact on climate change. For example: the Bear Mountain Development and all the new developed acreage in Sooke and Langford (including the new 68 acres of trees offered for development). There are also many BC ski and golf course resorts that have added housing and most of Vancouver’s West and North Shore municipal land that is now paved over.
It seems to us that the real solution to the housing affordability crisis, besides the federal government’s recently announced "intention" to prevent housing being used as an “investment vehicle”, is also to put an end to land speculation as well.
--------------------------------------------------------
“Nothing is inevitable if you are paying attention” Oak Bay Watch
Oak Bay Watch is a volunteer community association and its members have a variety of professional backgrounds in both the public and private sector.
*******Please help us continue to provide you with information about Community concerns and Council decisions and actions. Oak Bay Watch members also help community groups with their specific development concerns. Donate to Oak Bay Watch - even $5 or $10 dollars provides expenses for door- to- door handouts and helps us maintain our website. Oak Bay Watch is committed to ensuring the Community gets the full range of information on budget, governance and all key development issues – a well-informed opinion cannot be made without this.
(Please use Donate Button at bottom of oakbaywatch.com Home Page)
Keep informed and sign up for our newsletter – bottom of Newsletter Menu Item.
Home
Appendix #1
Canada’s Political Parties Housing Promises
Note: All parties want to make it easier for Canadians to buy homes however, at market dictated prices. Many of the promised taxpayer-funded market entry strategies will only allow land and housing speculators to continue to reap the financial benefits while driving hard working Canadians into unmanageable debt.
The Parties provide few details or “how- to’s”. However, in some of the intended corporate “reviews”, or “tweaks” there are some promises of limited “short-term foreign buying restrictions”. No information is provided about why these sanctions were not introduced long ago. More supply seems to be their preferred housing (and only) affordability solution
https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2021/08/summary-of-housing-promises-from-canadas-main-political-parties/
Liberals
Review the tax treatment of large corporate real estate owners (e.g. REITs - Real Estate Investment Trusts).
Increase housing supply with the Housing Accelerator Fund. This plan would invest $4 billion in a Housing Accelerator Fund to create a target of 100,000 new middle-class homes by 2024-25. Note: There is no mention of where the carpenters, plumbers and electricians will come from to carry out this work.
Conservatives
Crack down on “corrupt activities” that drive up home prices
This includes establishing a Beneficial Ownership Registry for residential properties
Implement “comprehensive” changes to the Proceeds of Crime (Money Laundering).
Increase housing supply by building one million homes over the next three years. Note: Ten times the number of tradesmen required.
NDP
The NDP platform is less detailed than that of the Liberals and Conservatives. However, they like the other two parties want to make it easier to enter into mortgages for housing that has been allowed to be priced far more than Canadian wages can afford.
Appendix #2: Additional Housing Supply Information
Elizabeth Murphy, a former Vancouver and BC Housing Property Development Officer, had this to say in the Vancouver Sun about the City’s Housing Supply:
“Recent data disclosed by (Vancouver) City staff show that there have been more new dwellings produced than household growth since 2001, and that there are enough new projects in-application for the next decades of projected population growth to come. This shows there is no legitimate reason for the city’s current rush to rezone without proper planning.”
“From the data provided by staff, it confirmed the census population growth was about one per cent per year, or 5,500 people. At the census average of 2.2 persons per unit, that is 2,500 units per year or 25,000 units per decade. Compare this to the city’s current housing targets of 72,000 units per decade, at almost three times the actual census population growth rates.”
Source: https://vancouversun.com/opinion/op-ed/elizabeth-murphy-its-time-for-vancouver-to-pause-and-pivot
Victoria’s housing Data project blames short-term rentals for strangling market - Victoria News
https://www.vicnews.com/news/data-project-blames-short-term-rentals-for-strangling-victorias-housing-market/
“Greater Victoria has 3,156 Airbnb listings, with three hosts making up 128 listings”
“The listings for entire homes nearly comprise the 2,900 additional units required in the City of Victoria between 2020 and 2025 to fill growing housing demand, according to the Capital Regional District’s housing needs assessment for the City of Victoria.”
If you can’t trust your Business, Developer and Builder’s Associations, Alliances and Institutions whom can you trust?
The message from these organizations and the Investment Industry is and has been for some time now, that a shortage of housing supply is the cause of the unaffordable prices that are impacting so many Canadians.
The solution they promote, at every opportunity, is that more supply is the action required to address Canada’s serious housing crisis.
It is apparent that their lobbying the federal and our provincial governments has paid dividends as our senior governments have adopted the “ramping-up the supply” as the primary housing crisis solution. All federal parties response this election year have indicated they are committed to more housing supply in their election platforms (see appendix #1).
The BC provincial government has gone one step further and has set a timeline to enact legislation to force municipalities to build as much supply as possible, as quickly as possible, even if this means eliminating public input opposed to the development's invasive impacts on their community.
However, a Union of BC Municipalities (UBCM) Report and other verifiable data confirm there is and has been adequate housing supply to meet demand and, municipalities are keeping pace with their increased population.
The adequate housing supply information is certainly true on Vancouver Island and in Vancouver. This is even supported by the data provided by the above development organizations (Appendix #2 provides information that the housing supply is adequate).
The BC Housing Minister, David Eby, disagrees he says housing supply is inadequate. He thinks this is why so many Canadians can’t afford housing and some are homeless. The minister has indicated resident opposition and municipal zoning, apparently not government inaction, is to blame for the housing crises.
What the Minister has failed to understand is that Canada’s housing crisis and homeless problem was caused by inflated land and rental costs. And only recently has the Federal Government recognized speculation and investing in real estate has played a big part in driving up Canada’s housing costs to unprecedented and unacceptable levels.
How do companies like CBRE have such a major impact on housing cots? See Oak Bay Watch Perspective
It is difficult to understand why, given all the information that confirms there is adequate supply, that housing affordability and not supply is the issue. If the home prices remain high for the government’s new “ramped up’ housing supply (purchase or rental) they will still be out of reach for many Canadians, including for the homeless and many of the new arrivals.
Surely it should be patently obvious to the housing minister by now that more high-priced supply is not going to solve Canada’s or British Columbia’s housing crises.
Oak Bay Watch Perspective (inflationary land pricing information)
What does this mean for Oak Bay?
Oak Bay has very little land left for development and it has a fairly healthy mix of multi-dwellings and single-family neighbourhoods. A recent estimate and past estimates have indicated there are also 750 secondary suites.
The options to add density are: to subdivide existing lots, or allow more density in multi-dwelling and single-family areas. Although this will add more housing units it will not make housing less expensive in Oak Bay. In fact, there is evidence that shows housing prices will increase and rents will remain high.
Other communities have provided an ample supply of laneway houses, basement and garden suites, and subdivisions. However, this has not reduced housing or rental prices. As indicated previously, the cost of land is the obvious problem that, like the elephant in the room, is being ignored by governments.
Land is more expensive, not only because more people want to move to British Columbia, but because the senior governments have allowed land and housing prices to be both legally and illegally, investment driven.
Some legislative actions against housing speculation have been taken to curtail investment practices. However, land speculation and investment continue to be identified by the academic community as the significant housing price-inflation factor. Unfortunately, this has not been and is not part of our senior government’s conversation.
To get a sense of the degree of land speculation in BC visit CBRE Victoria - see link https://cbrevictoria.com/our-listings/for-sale. CBRE is an American firm that is the world’s leading and largest commercial real estate service and investment firm (based on 2021 revenue). The Company indicates that it has offices and entrepreneurial clients all over the world.
Click on: “looking for your next investment opportunity – click here” or “Properties for Sale” (Note: These are the land-sale listings of only one of the Real Estate Companies’ operating in Canada)
The CBRE website has 8 land-use properties offered for sale in the Greater Victoria Area for a combined list price of over 48 million dollars. And a 68 acre treed site in Langford is advertised as, “a landmark investment opportunity. In a residential market that has high demand and a limited supply.”
Note this is only one of the real estate land speculation companies operating in Canada, It’s no wonder that “63% of Canadian non-owners have ‘given up’ on ever buying a home” as reported in the 2022-04-22 World News. Therefore, the question is whose “housing needs” were provided for in Victoria’s new 2021 record number of housing starts?
There seems to be no holding back for the Development and Investment Industries when it comes to their urban sprawl, natural asset destruction and the impact on climate change. For example: the Bear Mountain Development and all the new developed acreage in Sooke and Langford (including the new 68 acres of trees offered for development). There are also many BC ski and golf course resorts that have added housing and most of Vancouver’s West and North Shore municipal land that is now paved over.
It seems to us that the real solution to the housing affordability crisis, besides the federal government’s recently announced "intention" to prevent housing being used as an “investment vehicle”, is also to put an end to land speculation as well.
--------------------------------------------------------
“Nothing is inevitable if you are paying attention” Oak Bay Watch
Oak Bay Watch is a volunteer community association and its members have a variety of professional backgrounds in both the public and private sector.
*******Please help us continue to provide you with information about Community concerns and Council decisions and actions. Oak Bay Watch members also help community groups with their specific development concerns. Donate to Oak Bay Watch - even $5 or $10 dollars provides expenses for door- to- door handouts and helps us maintain our website. Oak Bay Watch is committed to ensuring the Community gets the full range of information on budget, governance and all key development issues – a well-informed opinion cannot be made without this.
(Please use Donate Button at bottom of oakbaywatch.com Home Page)
Keep informed and sign up for our newsletter – bottom of Newsletter Menu Item.
Home
Appendix #1
Canada’s Political Parties Housing Promises
Note: All parties want to make it easier for Canadians to buy homes however, at market dictated prices. Many of the promised taxpayer-funded market entry strategies will only allow land and housing speculators to continue to reap the financial benefits while driving hard working Canadians into unmanageable debt.
The Parties provide few details or “how- to’s”. However, in some of the intended corporate “reviews”, or “tweaks” there are some promises of limited “short-term foreign buying restrictions”. No information is provided about why these sanctions were not introduced long ago. More supply seems to be their preferred housing (and only) affordability solution
https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2021/08/summary-of-housing-promises-from-canadas-main-political-parties/
Liberals
Review the tax treatment of large corporate real estate owners (e.g. REITs - Real Estate Investment Trusts).
Increase housing supply with the Housing Accelerator Fund. This plan would invest $4 billion in a Housing Accelerator Fund to create a target of 100,000 new middle-class homes by 2024-25. Note: There is no mention of where the carpenters, plumbers and electricians will come from to carry out this work.
Conservatives
Crack down on “corrupt activities” that drive up home prices
This includes establishing a Beneficial Ownership Registry for residential properties
Implement “comprehensive” changes to the Proceeds of Crime (Money Laundering).
Increase housing supply by building one million homes over the next three years. Note: Ten times the number of tradesmen required.
NDP
The NDP platform is less detailed than that of the Liberals and Conservatives. However, they like the other two parties want to make it easier to enter into mortgages for housing that has been allowed to be priced far more than Canadian wages can afford.
Appendix #2: Additional Housing Supply Information
Elizabeth Murphy, a former Vancouver and BC Housing Property Development Officer, had this to say in the Vancouver Sun about the City’s Housing Supply:
“Recent data disclosed by (Vancouver) City staff show that there have been more new dwellings produced than household growth since 2001, and that there are enough new projects in-application for the next decades of projected population growth to come. This shows there is no legitimate reason for the city’s current rush to rezone without proper planning.”
“From the data provided by staff, it confirmed the census population growth was about one per cent per year, or 5,500 people. At the census average of 2.2 persons per unit, that is 2,500 units per year or 25,000 units per decade. Compare this to the city’s current housing targets of 72,000 units per decade, at almost three times the actual census population growth rates.”
Source: https://vancouversun.com/opinion/op-ed/elizabeth-murphy-its-time-for-vancouver-to-pause-and-pivot
Victoria’s housing Data project blames short-term rentals for strangling market - Victoria News
https://www.vicnews.com/news/data-project-blames-short-term-rentals-for-strangling-victorias-housing-market/
“Greater Victoria has 3,156 Airbnb listings, with three hosts making up 128 listings”
“The listings for entire homes nearly comprise the 2,900 additional units required in the City of Victoria between 2020 and 2025 to fill growing housing demand, according to the Capital Regional District’s housing needs assessment for the City of Victoria.”